氣候變遷對台灣地區異常降水的影響
Drought and inundation are two unusual natural disasters in Taiwan. The two natural disasters\r have some relation of abnormal rainfall become more and more in Taiwan. So it let me think about\r can climate vicissitudes make the chance of abnormal rainfall become more?\r The study have researched the chance of abnormal rainfall by "rainfall duration" and "total\r rainfall". It collect the day by day total rainfall from 1960 to July 2002, collect locals are Taipei,\r Taichung, Kaohsiung and Hualien. Than enter the data into the computer, let computer calculation\r total rainfall, rainfall days, heavy rain days, pouring rain days and torrential rain days. Then\r analysis the tendency of long-term change.\r According to the analysis, the chance of abnormal rainfall happened become more in Taipei,\r Taichung, Kaohsiung and Hualien. The ratio of Hualien and Kaohsiung is the most obviously. It's\r also find that there temperature and total evaporate became higher, the total sunshine duration\r became lower. Then El Nino have some influence in abnormal rainfal. In El Nino year, total rainfall\r will become lower. When La Nina year, the total rainfall will become more in Taipei and Hualien.\r Then the long influence is clearly in Taipei.\r 乾旱與水災是台灣地區相當常見的二項天災，這二項災害的發生都與異常降水有直接的\r 關係。近年來台灣地區因異常降水造成的天然災害，似乎有逐年增加的趨勢。因此讓人聯想\r 到氣候變遷是否會導致異常降水頻率增加。\r 本研究主要由「降雨時數」與「降雨量」二方面探討異常降水發生頻率。先收集台北、\r 台中、高雄、花蓮四地自1960 年至2002 年七月三十一日之逐日雨量資料，將資料輸入電腦\r 後，統計各站歷年降雨量、降雨日數、大雨、豪雨、暴雨日數，並分析長期變化趨勢。\r 分析結果，台北、台中、高雄、花蓮四地異常降水發生機率，有增加的情形；其中以花\r 蓮及高雄變化的比例最高。再與其他各地氣象要素比較可發現，可能與氣溫及蒸發量數上升，\r 以及日照時數縮短有關。另外聖嬰現象也可能對異常降水有長期性的影響。一般而言聖嬰年\r 雨量減少，反聖嬰年台北、花蓮地區雨量反而會增加。而長期性的影響，以台北地區最顯著。
月亮太陽斜斜掛
In this project, we mainly employ the self-made “positioning system for celestial objects” (PSFCO) to investigate the relations among Sun, Moon, and Earth. Based on the observational data, we then construct a three-dimensional (3D) model to further understand the hidden mystery. We first use the PSFCO, which was developed through four generations (see figure 1), to measure the change for a whole year in the North Polar Distance (NPD) of Sun and Moon individually. From the data analysis, we find that: 1. This change in NPD is very close to a sinusoidal function. 2. The date when the NPD of Moon is the largest in a month shifts earlier by 2.26 days every month on average. 3. The angle between the equatorial axis (EA) and the lunar orbital plane (LOP) is about 63.5 degrees, while the angle between the EA and the ecliptic plane (EP) is about 66.5 degrees. 4. The angle between the LOP and the EP is about 5 degrees. This is exactly why the solar eclipse and the lunar eclipse do not happen every month. 5. Time for a celestial object to be above the horizon = 1080 minutes – 4 (minute/degree) x NPD of the object. We geographically prove this empirical formula. With this formula and the PSFCO, we can accurately predict the times when an object rises and sets. We finally make a 3D model for Sun, Moon, and Earth. In this process, we confronted and then solved several difficult questions in mathematics and astronomy. This research dramatically enhances our understanding in our local planetary system. 主要利用自製的“天體定位儀”來詳細探討月亮、太陽及地球之間的位置及軌道關 係，並藉由三度空間模型的製作來進一步了解其中的奧妙。 首先利用天體定位儀 (共研發出四代，見圖1) 來量測月亮及太陽各自與北極的夾角 在1 年內的變化，經數據分析發現： 一、這個變化很像sin 函數。 二、月亮與北極的夾角發生極大值的農曆日數，每月平均提早約2.26 日。 三、白道面與赤道軸的夾角約為63.5 度，黃道面與赤道軸的夾角約為66.5 度。 四、白道面與黃道面之間的夾角約為5 度。這正是日蝕及月蝕不常發生的主要原因。 五、天體在地平線上的時間(分) = 1080 分－４(分/度) x 天體與北極夾角(度)。我們用幾 何定理證明了這個觀測到的關係式，且配合天體定位儀可準確預測任何可見天體 升上及落下地平線的時間。 最後製作月亮、太陽及地球的3D 軌道模型。過程中遭遇並解決了各種數學及天文 難題，使我們對這個行星系統有了更深一層的認識。
台灣地區的地震危害度分析
本研究主要是以一連串的地震分析，來討論台灣地區地震能量的釋放型態。 首先是求出地震的活動參數，接著再繪製地震規模的年發生率，最後是推算台灣地區 地震能量釋放時前餘震與主震所占之比重。 在地震參數上，發現地震活動度較高的月份中，在該月都發生了芮氏規模六級以上的 大地震，因其餘震發生的頻率較小震頻繁，因此造成其a值較大。 在地震規模年發生率方面，我們繪製出圖表，而最後發現台灣地區的地震仍以小震多，另外大地震則有一定的週期。 在研究的最後，了解台灣地區的地震常數之後，本研究以ESRI公司的GIS軟體ArcView8.3版疊合各種圖層，分析人口密集區及水庫的地震危害度分析，提出地圖，對大台北地區，人口稠密的幾個行政區提出警訊；另外在水庫方面，本研究則對幾個在斷層線上的水庫提出警訊。 ;This research presents a series ofearthquake analyses to discuss earthquake’s energy release type. First, we evaluated earthquake’s constant and charted the percentage of earthquake measurement every year. Finally, count the after-shocks and the major earthquake measuring 6.0 and above on the ML happening in Taiwan area. Because the after-shock frequency is more than light earthquakes, as a result it causes the “a” enumeration is large. According to the percentage of earthquake measurement happening frequency every year, we illustrate a chart. Finally we find that in Taiwan area mirror earth-quakes account for a large percentage and major earthquakes happened regularly. When we realize the constant of earthquake, the study folds a variety of layers by using ArcView 8.3 edition of GIS (Geography Information System) of ESRI co., LTD, analyzing the density-populated areas and the dams for seismic hazard to export the map. We raise a warning for the greater Taipei where some districts are densely-populated, and we also warn the dams on the line of fault of large of damage.
台灣沿岸地形與海嘯的實驗室模擬
本實驗利用喇叭、薄膜電極、波型產生器、鎖相放大器、及750 介面卡組合一套系統,此系統可使偵測精密度大幅提升(±4*10-5cm),使得水槽及地表模型尺度變小(40*22*35cm),因此可節省實驗的成本與時間我們在坡度實驗中,發現坡度在3 度左右,淺化係數都超過3. 對照台灣沿岸發生海嘯的歷史記載,確實在台灣東北角及西南沿岸等坡度為三度之地區都發生較明顯的海嘯危害. 反之,坡度在四度以上的東岸其海嘯波高都非常低.最後再藉著硬體系統及電腦2D 動畫模擬的整合,使我們可方便掌握波浪在不同坡度及位置,其波長及波高變化比,如此有助於預估及說明海嘯隨地形變化的狀況.By using the horn, membranous electrodes, function generator, phase-locked amplifier, and Science Workshop 750, we plan to assemble a tsunami simulation system in which the precision can be getting increased (±4*10-5cm) .Because of the improvement of its precision, the size of the tank and of the surface models will become smaller .As a result, the money and time spent on the experiment will be spare. When experimenting on the influence of inclination of the landforms, we observed that when the inclination reaches about 3 degrees, the shoaling coefficient exceeded 3 .The result of our experiment can provide an explanation to the tsunami on the northeast and southwest coast of Taiwan .According to the historical records, the disastrous tsunami happens frequently on the northeast and southwest coast of Taiwan where its inclination is also about 3 degrees as well .On the other hand, on the eastern coast, the wave height is lower and its inclination exceeds 4 degrees .Apparently, our experimenting result is correspond to the natural phenomena in Taiwan’s coast . Besides, with the help of hardware system and computer 2D animation simulation, we can easily measure the wavelength and wave height scale of the wave in different inclinations and positions. Therefore, this tsunami simulation system can provide a great help to estimate and explain the phenomena of tsunami which may change its condition in different landforms.
臭氧濃度與天氣因子
本實驗的觀測乃著重於觀測各定點之臭氧濃度與該地天氣因子；如溫度、相對溼度、氣壓、雲量、風速、日照強度等與之比較並控制所有可能的變因，來推測一地空氣污染的程度，並從中思考影響一地臭氧濃度變化的要素。 利用自製的熊本試紙來測量在對流層中臭氧的濃度，進而來推論出我們所設的測站附近的空氣污染程度。 由實驗了解臭氧濃度和其他天氣因子如溫度、相對溼度、風向、風速、日照強度、紫外線強度、工廠作息或交通流量等因素有著很微妙的關係。 最後，我們歸納出在做此實驗時所遇到的相關問題與解決方法。 This experimentation is about the ozone of troposphere. We try to find out how the weather elements affect the ozone consistency (for example: air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, cloudage, wind speed, solar insolation), and to discover the relation between the ozone consistency and the air pollution. We use the test paper which is made by ourselves to measure the ozone consistency of troposphere, so that we con use the date to infer the air pollution level at the area where we conduct our tests. According to our experiment, we find out the ozone consistency and other weather elements (ex: air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, cloudage, wind speed, solar insolation or traffic), have some delicate relations with each other. Finally, we conclude all the relative problems we face in this experiment and their solutions.
探討太陽黑子與珊瑚生長速率之關連性
微孔珊瑚是優良的生物氣候記錄器，可準確記錄海水表面水溫、陸源沉積物通量和其他微量海水組成等，已成為熱帶氣候變遷研究的重要工具。然而，珊瑚成長速率則顯著受限於海水表溫影響（邱景星，1999）。太陽是地表能量最主要來源，其活動狀態能深遠掌控地球氣候變化，因此其週期性變動規律，已成為近期地球科學家探討環境變遷的重要資訊。 本研究以台灣東南外海綠島採集的微孔珊瑚骨骼樣本，藉由X-ray精確測量其年平均生長速率及觀察骨骼內微量腐殖酸螢光特性，並透過比對太陽輻射量、珊瑚生長與太陽黑子數目的相關性分析，以推倒百年來控制地表氣候變遷的主要因素。 本研究經由頻譜分析、主變量計算、平均標準差和太陽輻射角修正，獲得正確太陽黑子數目、地區性輻射、海水表面溫度和珊瑚生長速率等資料，並討論其間的相互關係。 結果顯示，太陽輻射、海水表面溫度和氣溫有高度正相關（r2>0.62），證實太陽對地球氣候系統的重要性。太陽黑子與輻射資料，則因大氣折射、日照時數等因素影響，正設法解決這些干擾效應；而珊瑚生長速率與海水表面溫度的相關性，則涉及雙極化效應（註）及其他未知因素影響，尚待進一步釐清。 （註）：雙極化效應指珊瑚在過高或過低的環境下，生長速率皆會停止 The skeleton of Porites corals is one of the most useful biogenic recorders, which provide relevant information of abrupt climate change, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), riverine sedimentary flux, and seawater compositional variations. Information retrieved from coral skeleton, therefore, has become a powerful tool for studying tropical climate change. The annual growth rate of Porites corals, however, was affected strongly by local SSTs (Chiu, 1999). On the other hand, the climatic condition on Earth surface is regulated significantly by solar activity. Subsequently any intensity or periodicity variation in sunspot activity will cause major global environmental changes. This research aims to study coral skeleton collected from the Orchid Island (Lan-yu) offshore southeastern Taiwan for precise measurement of annual growth rate using X-ray density bands, as well as the luminous characteristics of trace humic acids in skeleton. A systematic comparison among solar irradiation, SSTs and coral growth rate will provide critical information on major factors that may affect environmental changes occurred during the last millennium. In this study, we apply spectrum analyses, principal component, mean standard error method, and modified sun irradiation angle to correct biases presented in the available data of observed sunspot number, local irradiation, SSTs and coral annual growth rate and to examine possible relationships among these factors. We have found excellent correlation coefficient (r2>0.62) in solar irradiation, SSTs and air-temperature, which support the importance of solar irradiation to the earth surface climate. However, effects on cloud and length of sun irradiation need further investigation to emphasize the importance of sunspot activity to the annual growth rate of Porites corals. No straight forward relationships were observed between coral growth rate and local SSTs due to complicated biological effect (1*) or other unknown factors, waits for further investigation in the near future. 1* Complicated biological effect means that coral may stop growing their skeletons when the temperature it lives in is over range for growth.
大氣層厚度光學測量法之研究及創新
這個專題研究的目的是要發展出一套簡單可靠的方法和廉價自製的器材，在地面上即能有效估測大氣層的厚度。我們小組研究光學中雷氏(Rayleigh)散射的原理，針對空氣分子對光線散射作用和特定方向之偏極效應，利用一已知散射長度之路徑，測量其偏極光的強度，同時比對由大氣層散射而來，在同一偏極面上的散射光強度，即能估算大氣層的厚度，方法簡單新穎，自製器材經實際測量和改進，有發展和推廣的價值。\r The main idea of the experiment is to set a system in order to effectively estimate the thickness of the atmosphere. On the theory of “Rayleigh Scattering” (small air molecules sizing about 10-4μm), we developed an equipment that has two tubes. The tubes lead the scattered lights from two paths. One is called “air light” scattered in the ground air, and the other “sky light” is scattered in the sky and reflected by a beam splitter. The two paths are on the same plane; the scattered lights are perpendicular to the direction of sunlight and 100% polarized. We could adjust and measure the distance “d” of the air light path. We simultaneously observe and compare the intensity of the lights from the two paths with the electronic instrument made by ourselves. By using the known distance “d” and the reflection “x” of the beam splitter, we can calculate the thickness of the atmosphere. The experiment is simple, novel and easy to do in an extensive field at school. Researchers don’t have to use a bloom, radar or satellite to discover the atmosphere, but you could use a simple equipment to observe the features of it.
Tree'ting Wood Better:Sunscreen for Trees
The purpose of this experiment is to determine whether or not wood can be used as an alternative testing method for sunscreens and which species of wood are good for this objective. This will be accomplished by applying varying strengths, or SPFs, of sunscreens onto thin wood veneers. They will then be exposed using a weatherometer, in which real light and sun conditions will be simulated. Using a device called a Pulmac, the samples of wood will be pulled apart from the centre at zero span. Based on the consistency of the strengths, it can be determined how the wood reacts to the sunscreen and whether that species of wood is suitable as a testing medium. Trees are an important commodity which enrich the lives of many people, particularly those who live in British Columbia. They provide the means of living and recreation for numerous people, whether it is employment, business, housing, or camping. Since trees are a renewable resource, they are convenient and realistic to use for testing. There are two possible extensions to this project. If the active ingredients in sunscreens can be determined, then we may be able to use these elements to create a new type of stain for fences and other structures. This could make the necessity for painting less frequent, creating cheaper options for the homeowner. The second possible extension of this project is to use the results to as an initiative to reduce the amount of animal and human testing done by manufacturers. This is important, as animal testing not only causes unnecessary pain, but often the results are not very accurate. Overall, I determined that this method of testing sunscreens would work quite well, especially with the following species, listed in decreasing order. 1) Yellow Cedar 2) Yellow Poplar 3) Maple 4) Hemlock These results were based on how tightly grouped together the means of the strength values were for each species. The closer they were, the more consistent that type of wood and therefore the better they are for testing. Overall, I think this method of testing sunscreens would work quite well, particularly with the yellow cedar, maple, yellow poplar and hemlock, as they resulted in fairly consistent strength values. Generally, the sunscreens with a high SPF, or Sun Protection Factor, resulted in a lower strength loss than the sunscreen with SPF 15. In addition to proving that sunscreen is a good method for preventing UV rays from reaching the skin, this experiment has also confirmed that there are other methods of testing sunscreens, which can be researched further. Along with my main presentation I will be showing various graphs, statistics, and pictures. They will be supplemented by a booklet of “Commonly Asked Questions and Answers” and species descriptions for each type of wood.