灰色預測在雨量長期趨勢分析之應用
灰色理論近來廣泛應用於各行各業的管理資訊科學上，本研究乃應用灰色理論的一階微分中輸入變數為一項之 GM ( 1 , 1 ）模型，來預測台灣中部地區土石流主要因素雨量的月平均量值。本文運用三筆以上的歷史資料，作最近一年歷史性資料的預測，藉以驗證獲得其誤差（±△e）之校止參考依據值，比利用殘差檢驗所得的誤差校止數據，更能修止出精確的預測值，接著再做台灣中部雨量未來之預測，以作為未來雨水、土石流防治之參考 · 為了能迅速產生所要的灰色預測值，研究中並以 VB 程式語言及以Petri-net分析其動態處理行為，藉 GM ( 1 , 1 ）模型的專屬處理支援程式，以做為未來雨輦自動化處理警示與預測之支援機制。Recently Grey Theory has been widely applied to management information science in all kinds of areas. This research applies the first Level differential of the Grey Theory to put a variable in GM( 1,1) model to forecast the monthly average value of the most common precipitation, in the midland Taiwan earth-stone flood zone. This paper uses more than three historical data to forecast the most recent year’s historical data, which can be used to verify and acquire referential correction data of its errors ( ±△e). The aforementioned method can correct forecast data more precisely than the differential inspection. In addition, this method can then forecast future precipitation in midland Taiwan earth-stone flood zone and the results can serve as reference for future precipitation control. To rapidly receive the needed Grey forecast values, the research analyzes its dynamic process method by utilizing VB program and Petri-net to build a dedicated process-support program of GM( I , 1) model. This program will serve as a support mechanism for future automatic precipitation warning and forecast.
The Free-D Elevator System
Miracles in life originate from daily life itself. What can be imagined can really be achieved. Hong Kong, as an international city, is small in area and densely populated. To utilize space, tall buildings inevitably emerge. Taking elevators has therefore become the daily routine of everyone of us. However, problems abound with the present elevator system. You have probably gone through the dreadful episode of waiting long for an elevator to come, and passage being interrupted by unreasonably frequent stops. Besides, it wastes space, since each elevator tube can only accommodate one elevator. This is why our Free-D Elevator System will revolutionize the present one. It consists of a large cylindrical tube, which can be divided into several smaller, imaginary sector-shaped tubes. In each small tube a large number of elevators move vertically by magnetic levitation. The elevators can also rotate from one tube to another, thereby avoiding collision. This innovative design will substantially increase the number of available elevators for given space. Most importantly, it is highly feasible.
Tharn Din-Alternative Energy Source of The Future
This scientific research project “Tharn Din - Alternative Energy Source of the Future” is directed toward producing a new type of soil charcoal. Tharn Din, with excellent combustibility. The experiments were divided into six steps. First, we selected soils of exceptional adhesion property Next, we looked into many different combustible materials for soil admixtures. Many different formulas of soils and admixtures were tested. The most promising formulas were then optimized for maximum combustibility. After which, the best formula was chosen and we further optimized its combustibility. Combustion and ignition rate and characteristics of this formula were investigated. And lastly the effect of surface area on combustible rate was examined. It was found that mud was the best adhesive and wood chip was the best admixture. Tharn Din made of one part of mud and 3 parts of wood chips released higher thermal energy than normal charcoals. We found that a special type of Thai soil, Din See-eaw, when mixed with wood chips created Tharn Din of exceptional combustibi1it Ignition and combustible rates are proportional to the surface area of Tharn Din.