由人類活動造成的溫室效應可能導致地球溫度升高,聖嬰現象加劇等現象與災害,本文利用個氣候中心發展出的模式,推估台灣和東亞地區未來氣候變遷的情況,我們發現當大氣中的二氧化碳濃度增加為現在的1.9倍時,台灣地區的年平均溫度將升高0.85-2.50度C而東亞地區將會升高1.46-4.07度C,在同條件下個模式的平均推估量也顯示,台灣地區將每天增加0.10公厘的降水，而東亞地區每天將增加0.08公哩,我們希望這個研究結果可以做為其他相關研究的基礎,使大家提早因應未來氣候變遷所可能引發的種種變化;Greenhouse effect, incurred mainly by human activities may result in lots of phenomenon and damages such as the increasing of the world's average temperature and he aggravation f the "ElNino" effect. In this research, we simulate future metrological values by employing several simulation modes developed by different climate centers and predict future climate changes in Taiwan and East Asia area. We found that when the concentration of carbon dioxide exceeds 1.9 times than current value, the estimated range of the increased year-average temperature are0.85-2.5℃ and 1.46-4.07℃ for Taiwan and East Asia, respectively. Under the same condition, the ensemble mean reveals that the precipitation raises will be 0.1 and 0.08mm per day, for Taiwan and East Asia respectively. We hope our work can be the foundation of other related researches, and all the researches together can help for coping with possible damages caused by future climate changes.
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