摘要或動機

Conspiracy theories are generally perceived as irrational, absurd and as having a negative effect on our reputation. Yet some people do not see them as such. This may lead us to wonder why and how an individual would come to believe or support such statements. In this work, the primary goal is to obtain the level of absurdity of various conspiracy theories so that they can be used in experiments designed to test Williams' “Strategic Absurdity Hypothesis”. In addition, this study attempts to demonstrate the link between conspiracy mentality and feelings of ostracism. In this research, I analyzed a group of 47 participants recruited via social networks in May 2023. The survey collected their demographic information, their conspiracy mentality, their feeling of ostracism, their knowledge of conspiracy theories and their perception of absurdity toward them. The results were analyzed using correlations and linear regressions. The results show a negative correlation between conspiracy mentality and the perception of absurdity for most theories. In other words, the higher a participant's conspiracy mentality, the less absurd the theory is perceived to be. Therefore, hypothesis (I) is partially supported. On the other hand, hypothesis (II), which says that ostracism predicts conspiracy mentality, is not supported by the results. These results are in line with Williams' “Strategic Absurdity Hypothesis” and Sterelny's signaling theory, explaining that an individual, by expressing agreement with a conspiracy theory typically perceived as absurd, damages their reputation in the eyes of others to show that they belong to the group. However, for the theories relating to COVID-19 and climate change, the conspiracy mentality does not predict the vision of absurdity, suggesting that their currentness and media coverage influence whether they are used as signals. The literature does not fully agree with our results and still presents very divergent opinions regarding the links between feelings of ostracism and conspiracy mentality. Indeed, it remains difficult to determine whether conspiracy mentality influences ostracism or vice versa. In conclusion, this study provides new ideas for future research on the origins and impact of the conspiracy theories.