摘要或動機

Money drives the world and in times of crisis, money is more important than ever. Most political, economic and, as we have seen recently, health crises are accompanied by pressure on the economy. With such pressure, ordinary citizens are worried about their money, which is at risk either from inflation or from an uncertain economic outlook. In such times, some people resort to appreciating their money by investing. It is wise investments that can protect savings from inflation, or at least mitigate the effects of inflation. Investing in the stock market is among the most popular ways of investing. During the global coronavirus crisis, the number of small investors more than doubled (Galik and Brody [2022]), and in 2021, Covid (new) investors accounted for 15 % of investors in the U.S. market (Schwab [2021]). It is this phenomenon that inspired the author to write this paper. Investing in the stock market is one of the riskiest forms of investment, which means that there is a high probability of losing the originally invested capital. Some companies that allow retail investors to invest state that more than 90 % of their users lose their capital when investing in the stock market. On the other hand, investing in the stock market has one of the greatest potentials for profit. In the case of a long-term investment in index funds, for example, an average annual appreciation of between 8 % and 12 % can be expected (the average appreciation of the S&P 500, the most famous US index). However, it is necessary to wait several years for stable results. To see appreciation in a long-term portfolio, it is recommended to wait at least 12 years. This is because if a recession or a simple market correction comes, said portfolio can lose up to 50 % of its value in a year. But as history shows, markets do rise over the long term, and that is what long-term investors bet on, waiting for their capital to appreciate over time. But the market does not grow all the time. The market often changes price trends, and in some rare cases a long-term trend can reverse for up to several tens of months. This phenomenon, volatility, is attempted to be exploited by so-called speculators. A speculator is an investor who sells and buys in short periods of time and thus speculates on price movements. The speculator therefore needs a way to determine the likely behaviour of the price in the foreseeable future in order to make their trades profitable. The two main ways of analysing price behaviour are fundamental and technical analysis. And since fundamental analysis incorporates a large amount of diverse information into its predictions, this paper concentrates on working with technical analysis.