流行病的傳染如同一個無尺度網路，但有一些特殊特性在發展一套新傳播模式時，是需要被詳加考慮的。我採用時間位移(t 與ti 分別以t?(ti?1)與ti?(ti?1)來取代)至無尺度網路模式中，再引入一個非連續強力函數H(t; ti?1, L+ti?1)來描述流行病傳播的特定時段與強度，並重新定義機率p 為無效傳染率。之後，我建立了新模式「無尺度流行病模式」－SFE-1與SFE-2。模擬六種病原的傳染途徑，結果證實SFE-1與SFE-2模式是正確與確切可用。案例研究結果，顯示傳染強度H可為固定值或為變數；p可以是一固定值、雙固定值或為新增病例的函數。更進一步解析美國AIDS病例在不同族群與行為上的差異，獲知亞裔/太平洋裔與印第安人/阿拉斯加人的H值低於其他族群，其原因可能是由於小的族群具有較高的接觸所致。異性性接觸的H值低於其他，顯示性交易是傳播HIV的主要途徑。SFE-1與SFE-2模式也可被用在流行病的預測上，因為SFE-2使用已知值而非估算值，所以SFE-2模擬結果較佳；但是SFE-1更可以明確提供一個流行病在失控或控制下的預測結果。無尺度流行病模式可以協助所需警戒的程度與政策決定的計畫結果。因此在幫助政府評估社會經濟成本與健康憂慮上是一個有用的工具。所以我提出一個確切可行的對抗無尺度流行病傳染新方法，並詳細說明運作流程。The course of epidemics resembles a scale-free network, but some specific elements should be considered in developing a new model. I introduced a time shifting (replacing t and ti by t?(ti?1) and ti?(ti?1)) and a discontinuous forcing function H(t; ti?1, L+ti?1) into the scale-free network model to fit the specific period and intensity of the infection, and redefined the probability p as an invalid infection rate. Then I proposed the new Scale-Free Epidemic Models, SFE-1 and SFE-2. The simulation results of six types of epidemic transmission showed that the SFE models were accurate and useful. In the case studies, the results showed that H were constant or variable, and p were a fixed constant, a dual constant, or a function ofnew addition cases in the epidemic periods. The further studies for comparisons of the difference races/ethnics and the difference transmission category of AIDS cases in USA were analyzed. The H value for Asian/Pacific and Indian/Alaska Native race were lower than others, it may be due to small clusters with constant high contact rates. The H value forheterosexual contact was lower than the others, indicating that whoredom was the main transmission for HIV. Both SFE models can be used to predict epidemics, SFE-2 is better than SFE-1 due to SFE-2 using given indices and not conjectured values, but SFE-1 can more clearly suggest results of epidemics when under control or not. SFE models can help thegovernment to determine the level of caution needed and the projected results of policy decisions. They are useful tools in assisting to balance socio-economic and health concerns. I hereby propose a new method to fight against epidemics with detailed procedures of using the SFE models.
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