臺灣國際科展

神經妙算流博村-是洪水?是山崩?

科展類別
臺灣國際科展
屆次
2008年
科別
環境科學
學校名稱
臺中市私立衛道高中(附設國中)
指導老師
洪香瑜、林金直
作者
林昀蒨
關鍵字
洪水 山崩

摘要或動機

南投溪頭米堤飯店在2001 年因土石流受創,產險公司以「土石流即是山崩」為由拒絕理賠。歷經5 年的訴訟後,2007 年1 月台灣高等法院認定,土石流屬保險契約中所規範的「洪水」,並非「山崩」,判決產險公司應給付賠償金。土石流究竟是洪水?是山崩?主要因素便是土石流發生的水文因子。本文藉由博愛村的現場調查及文獻探討先作初步資料分析(preliminary analysis),了解到地文因子(physiographical factor)是土石流發生的充分條件,非必要條件;一般僅考慮雨量因子,把地文因子看作常數(忽略地文因子受水文因子歷程(course)影響),簡單易懂,但在安全與經濟考量上有待討論。使用類神經網路對已發生過的土石流事件計算土石流發生臨界曲線,並使用模糊理論計算松鶴地區其受水文因子影響的土石流發生臨界曲線,這樣的模式,考慮似乎比較周到。由「米堤飯店」的例證,更說明土石流發生的水文因子的必要性。Lemidi hotel, Xitou, Nantou because mudflows and landslides and was wounded in 2001. The Insurance Company refused to settle a claim on the position on “A landside is a debris flow”. After the lawsuit which was going through 5 years. In January, 2007, the High Court of Taiwan asserted that the adversity in the 2001 belongs to “the flood” in the norm of the insurance agreement. As the norm of the insurance agreement said, the debris flows in the land is the flood, not the “landslide”. The High Court of Taiwan judged that the Insurance Company should compensate the Lemidi Hotel. Is debris low a landslide or a flood? The main cause is the Hydrology in the happening of a debris flow. We did preliminary analysis of forms by on-the-spot investigation on Song-Ho Village and reference discussing. We realized that physiographical factor is an abundant condition for a happening of a debris flow, not the essential condition. Generally, people only consider rainfall factor. And they consider physiographical factor as not as constant (neglect the influence of hydrology factor to physiographical factor). We can understand easily in that way. Therefore, in the aspect of security and economy, there is much doubt that is needed to be discussed. People who use neural network method to calculate the curve of the debris flow happening , and used fuzzy theory to calculate the curve of the debris flow happening which is influenced by the hydrology in Song-Ho Village. In that way, we may consider more thoughtful. From the example of the Lemidi Hotel in Nantou, we can prove that how necessary the hydrology factor in the debris flow is.


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